World Peace

CURRENT LEADERSHIP

Who is currently in charge in Venezuela?

GoogleAI Mode: “As of January 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is the acting president of Venezuela. She was sworn in on January 5, 2026, following a U.S. military operation that captured and removed long-time leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on January 3. 

Current Leadership and Control

Acting President: Delcy Rodríguez, formerly the Vice President, assumed office after the Supreme Tribunal of Justice ordered her to take over to ensure “administrative continuity”. While she has denounced Maduro’s capture as an “atrocity,” she has signaled a willingness to collaborate with the U.S. on a “cooperation agenda”.

The “Chavismo” Regime: Despite Maduro’s removal, the existing socialist government remains largely intact. Key figures continuing to hold power include:

Jorge Rodríguez: President of the National Assembly and Delcy’s brother.

Diosdado Cabello: Interior Minister and a powerful hardline enforcer.

Vladimir Padrino López: Defense Minister and head of the armed forces, who has pledged the military’s support to Rodríguez.

U.S. Influence: President Donald Trump has asserted that the United States will “run” Venezuela until a “safe and proper transition” can occur, specifically aiming to revitalize the country’s oil industry. 

Status of Nicolás Maduro

Incarceration: Maduro is currently detained at the Metropolitan Detention Center in New York.

Legal Proceedings: He has been charged with narco-terrorism and drug trafficking. On January 5, 2026, he pleaded not guilty in a Manhattan court, asserting he is still the “de jure” (legal) president of Venezuela and a “prisoner of war”. 

The Opposition

María Corina Machado: The opposition leader and recent Nobel Peace Prize winner has called for a democratic transition. While she previously advocated for her ally Edmundo González (the widely recognized winner of the disputed 2024 election) to take power, the U.S. administration has so far favored working with Rodríguez as a temporary “technocratic” leader.”

THE VIOLATIONS

What are the likely violations against the Constitution of Venezuela?

GoogleAI Mode: “In January 2026, legal and political experts identified several likely violations of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela following the U.S. military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro. 

1. Violation of Presidential Succession Rules (Article 233)

Under the Venezuelan Constitution, the capture of a sitting president creates an “absolute absence”. 

Mandatory Elections: Article 233 requires that if an absolute absence occurs during the first four years of a six-year term, a new presidential election must be held within 30 consecutive days.

The Violation: The Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) instead classified Maduro’s removal as a “forced absence” or “temporary absence”. This allowed Delcy Rodríguez to assume an acting role for 90 days (renewable), effectively bypassing the 30-day election mandate and allowing the existing regime to maintain power indefinitely. 

2. Lack of Democratic Legitimacy

The current leadership under Delcy Rodríguez is criticized for lacking the constitutional basis of popular sovereignty:

Stolen 2024 Election: Experts argue that because the Maduro regime allegedly manipulated the July 2024 election results, any official appointed by that administration—including Rodríguez as Vice President—is inherently illegitimate.

Disregard for the Popular Will: By installing Rodríguez rather than recognizing the widely acknowledged winner of the 2024 election, Edmundo González, the government is accused of violating the core constitutional principle that sovereignty resides in the people. 

3. Judicial Subordination

The Venezuelan Constitution requires an independent judiciary to act as a check on executive power.

The Violation: Critics assert the TSJ is a “subordinated organ of the dictatorship”. Its January 2026 ruling to install Rodríguez is viewed not as a legal necessity, but as a political maneuver to “guarantee administrative continuity” for the ruling PSUV party without facing the voters. 

4. Sovereignty and Territorial Integrity

While the U.S. and the current acting government are negotiating a “cooperation agenda,” the initial operation raised constitutional alarms: 

Sovereignty: Article 1 of the Constitution declares the nation’s sovereignty is “inalienable.” The unilateral entry of foreign military forces to remove a head of state is widely viewed as a “flagrant violation” of this sovereignty.

Foreign Control: President Trump’s statement that the U.S. will “run” Venezuela until a transition is complete is seen as direct interference in the internal self-determination guaranteed by the Venezuelan Constitution.”

THE VIOLATION BY THE TSJ

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that TSJ is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by swearing in Delcy Rodríguez?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by swearing in Delcy Rodríguez is a 4 out of 5.

Legal experts and scholars argue that the TSJ’s ruling is a “maneuver” designed to keep the existing regime in power by intentionally misclassifying the nature of the presidential vacancy. 

Why the Likelihood is High (The Violation Arguments)

Misclassification of “Absence”: Under Article 233, the capture and removal of a president to a foreign country—making them unable to exercise power—should be declared an “absolute absence.” This requires a new election within 30 days.

Bypassing Elections: The TSJ instead declared it a “temporary absence” or “forced absence”. This classification allows the Vice President to serve as acting president for 90 to 180 days without triggering the mandatory election cycle, which critics call a direct disregard of the constitutional succession framework.

Illegitimacy of the Appointee: Legal scholars point out that because the TSJ helped maintain Maduro in power despite widespread evidence of fraud in the July 2024 election, any official appointed by that regime—including Rodríguez—lacks the democratic legitimacy required by the Constitution.

Judicial Subordination: The TSJ is widely viewed as a tool of the ruling party rather than an independent arbiter. Its decision to install Rodríguez “in order to guarantee administrative continuity” is seen as a political survival tactic rather than a constitutional necessity. 

Why it is not a 5 (The Counter-Arguments)

Legal “Grey Area”: The TSJ argued that the unprecedented nature of a president being “abducted” by a foreign military creates a unique “forced absence” not explicitly detailed as “absolute” in the written text.

Institutional Support: The TSJ’s ruling was backed by other state powers, including the National Assembly and the military, providing a veneer of domestic legality even if the action is widely viewed as unconstitutional by international bodies and scholars.”

THE SIMILARITIES BETWEEN THE TSJ & SCOTUS

In 2026, how is the TSJ similar to SCOTUS?

GoogleAI Mode: “In 2026, critics and legal scholars have drawn parallels between the U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) and Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ), primarily regarding their roles in expanding executive power and providing judicial cover for controversial presidential actions.

The following similarities are noted in current legal discourse:

1. Expansion of Presidential Immunity and Power

Both courts have been accused of issuing rulings that grant their respective presidents broad authority, effectively shielding them from traditional legal restraints.

SCOTUS: The U.S. Supreme Court is cited for granting “virtually blanket immunity” for official presidential acts, which scholars argue provided the “carte blanche” necessary for the 2026 invasion of Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro.

TSJ: The Venezuelan TSJ has long been criticized as a “subordinated organ” that provides “constitutional certainty” for the ruling party’s survival. Following Maduro’s capture, it immediately issued a ruling to bypass constitutional succession rules, ensuring the regime’s “administrative continuity”. 

2. Facilitating Succession and Political Continuity

In 2026, both courts played pivotal roles in determining who holds power during the Venezuelan crisis.

TSJ’s Successive Maneuvers: The TSJ classified Maduro’s capture as a “temporary absence” rather than an “absolute” one. This allowed Delcy Rodríguez to take power without triggering the mandatory 30-day election cycle required by the Constitution, a move described as “constitutional authoritarian populism”.

SCOTUS’s Jurisdictional Support: The U.S. Supreme Court has consistently upheld the Ker-Frisbie doctrine, which allows U.S. courts to exercise jurisdiction over a defendant (like Maduro) regardless of how they were brought to the U.S. (e.g., through “unlawful abductions”). This provides the legal foundation for the Trump administration’s criminal prosecution of Maduro. 

3. Use of “Emergency” or “Shadow” Dockets

Both courts are increasingly using expedited or exceptional legal mechanisms to impact policy.

SCOTUS: The U.S. Supreme Court has repeatedly used its “emergency docket” to stay lower court orders that attempted to block the Trump administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans.

TSJ: The TSJ utilized its “Constitutional Chamber” to issue an immediate, atypical ruling on the very day of Maduro’s capture to prevent a power vacuum, prioritizing regime stability over literal constitutional text. 

4. Allegations of Judicial “Fealty”

Critics argue that both bodies have shifted from independent judicial arbiters to bodies that demonstrate political loyalty.

U.S. Perspective: Scholars warn that SCOTUS is at a crossroads where it must choose between “American democracy or fealty to Trump,” particularly as it revisits the boundaries of the Alien Enemies Act and international law regarding the occupation of Venezuela.

Venezuela Perspective: The TSJ is widely viewed as having “crumbling guardrails,” having spent years disqualifying opposition leaders like María Corina Machado and consistently ruling in favor of the executive branch to suppress dissent.”

THE VIOLATION BY DELCY

PART I

On scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that Delcy Rodríguez is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by acting as president?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that Delcy Rodríguez is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by acting as president is a 4 out of 5. 

Legal experts and constitutional scholars argue that her presidency is built on an “authoritarian rebalancing” designed to bypass democratic mandates through judicial manipulation. 

Arguments for High Violation Likelihood (Score 4)

Avoidance of Mandatory Elections: Article 233 of the Constitution requires that a new presidential election be held within 30 consecutive days if an “absolute absence” occurs during the first four years of a term. By classifying Maduro’s capture as a “temporary” or “forced” absence, the pro-regime Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) allowed Rodríguez to take power for a renewable 90-day period, effectively blocking the constitutionally required vote.

Lack of Electoral Legitimacy: Rodríguez was appointed Vice President by Nicolás Maduro, whose own 2024 re-election is widely considered a “stolen” result by the international community and domestic opposition. Scholars argue that as she derives her authority from an illegitimate ruler, her acting presidency is a “violation of constitutional checks and balances”.

Subordinated Judiciary: The TSJ is seen as a “fully subordinated organ of the dictatorship” rather than an independent body. Its ruling to swear in Rodríguez is viewed by critics as an “abuse of judicial review power” to maintain administrative continuity for the ruling party without facing an election. 

Counter-Arguments for Lower Certainty (Why not 5)

Formal Institutional Backing: Despite the controversy, Rodríguez followed a formal (though disputed) legal procedure. The TSJ issued a written ruling citing Articles 234 and 239 to establish her as acting president to ensure “administrative continuity” during a state of “forced absence”.

Military and Legislative Support: The National Assembly and the Venezuelan military have publicly recognized her as the acting president, providing a layer of “de facto” domestic legality even if the constitutional “de jure” basis is widely questioned.”

PART II

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that Delcy Rodríguez is due for a prosecution for her involvement with the previous administration?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that Delcy Rodríguez is due for prosecution for her involvement with the previous administration is a 4 out of 5.

While she has not yet been publicly indicted, recent revelations and explicit warnings from the U.S. government indicate she is under intense legal scrutiny. 

1. Extensive Investigative Evidence

DEA Priority Target: As of January 17, 2026, investigative records reveal that the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has maintained a detailed intelligence file on Rodríguez since 2018. In 2022, she was designated a “priority target,” a label reserved for suspects believed to have a significant impact on the drug trade.

Allegations: The DEA investigations catalog allegations including drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and money laundering. One informant alleged she used hotels on Isla Margarita as fronts for laundering money.

Links to Corrupt Networks: Rodríguez has been linked to Alex Saab, Nicolás Maduro’s alleged “bag man” who was previously arrested on money-laundering charges. 

2. Explicit Threats from the U.S. Executive

Trump’s Warning: Following the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, President Donald Trump issued a public warning that if Rodríguez “doesn’t do what’s right,” she will “pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro”.

Leverage for Cooperation: Legal experts suggest that the “razor-sharp sword” of potential indictment serves as leverage for the U.S. to ensure her cooperation in providing “total access” to Venezuela’s oil reserves. 

3. Current Status: Acting President vs. Prosecution

The reason the likelihood is not a “5” is due to her current, albeit fragile, political utility to the United States: 

Preferred Partner (for now): Despite the long-standing investigations, the Trump administration has characterized her as America’s “preferred partner” to temporarily stabilize Venezuela and manage its oil production during the current transition.

No Current Indictment: As of mid-January 2026, Rodríguez is notably not among the more than a dozen Venezuelan officials publicly charged with drug trafficking alongside Maduro. 

Summary of Likelihood Factors

Factor
Evidence Base

Likelihood Detail
Very High: Extensive DEA files on drug trafficking and laundering.

Factor 
Political Intent

Likelihood Detail
High: Explicit threats of indictment from Trump if she fails to cooperate.

Factor
Institutional Barrier

Likelihood Detail
Moderate: Currently serving as acting president with U.S. backing for stability.

Factor
Formal Status

Likelihood Detail
No Active Indictment: She has not yet been publicly charged.”

THE VIOLATION BY TRUMP

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that Donald J. Trump is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by controlling Venezuela?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that Donald J. Trump is in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution by exercising control over Venezuela is a 5 out of 5.

The Venezuelan Constitution is fundamentally based on the principles of sovereignty and non-interference, both of which are directly contradicted by the current level of U.S. involvement in the country’s internal governance.

1. Violation of National Sovereignty (Articles 1 and 5)

Fundamental Principle: Article 1 of the Constitution declares the Venezuelan nation to be “irrevocably free and independent” and states that “sovereignty, as well as political power, are exercised by the people.”

The Violation: President Trump has explicitly stated that the U.S. will “run the country” until a transition is complete. Any foreign leader claiming direct governing authority over Venezuela is in absolute contradiction to the constitutional mandate that sovereignty resides exclusively in the Venezuelan people. 

2. Interference in Internal Self-Determination

Right to Self-Governance: The Constitution (Article 1) and international law principles incorporated within it protect the right of Venezuelans to determine their own political system without foreign interference.

The Violation: By unilaterally removing a sitting president and installing or backing a specific successor (Delcy Rodríguez) while “running” the country’s transition, the U.S. executive is directly managing Venezuelan internal affairs. This is viewed by legal experts as a “flagrant violation” of the constitutional and sovereign integrity of the state. 

3. Unauthorized Control of Natural Resources (Articles 12 and 302)

State Control of Oil: The Venezuelan Constitution (Article 12) specifies that all mineral and hydrocarbon deposits belong to the Republic and are “of public domain.” Article 302 reserves the petroleum industry for the State for reasons of national interest.

The Violation: Trump’s plan to use U.S. oil companies to “take” and “rebuild” the oil industry to “reimburse” the U.S. for damages is a direct breach of Venezuela’s constitutional control over its own natural resources. Seizing oil revenue as a “U.S. asset” violates the constitutional requirement that these resources be managed by the Venezuelan state for the benefit of its citizens. 

4. Extra-Constitutional Transition

Succession Process: The Constitution provides a very specific path for transition (Articles 233 and 234). It does not contain any provision allowing a foreign head of state to oversee, manage, or “run” a transition period.

The Violation: Trump’s assertion that U.S. officials like Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth will “oversee” the country bypasses every established constitutional mechanism for Venezuelan self-governance. 

While the Trump administration argues its actions are a “law enforcement operation” supported by its own constitutional authority (U.S. Article II), there is no legal basis within the Venezuelan Constitution that permits such a role for a foreign power.”

THE VIOLATION BY MADURO

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that Maduro was in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution as president?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that Nicolás Maduro was in violation of the Venezuelan Constitution during his presidency is a 5 out of 5.

Legal experts, international bodies, and the Venezuelan opposition have documented extensive breaches of the 1999 Constitution throughout his tenure, particularly regarding electoral integrity and human rights.

1. Illegitimacy and Electoral Fraud (Articles 5 and 63)

2024 Election Fraud: International observers from the Carter Center and the UN found that Maduro’s 2024 re-election was a “farce” and lacked democratic integrity. By claiming victory despite strong evidence that opposition candidate Edmundo González won by a landslide (approximately 67% to 30%), Maduro is widely viewed as having “stolen” the election in violation of Article 5, which mandates that sovereignty resides in the people.

Usurpation of Power: Because his mandate was not properly renewed in 2024, scholars argue that Maduro “unlawfully remained in power” and that his new term starting in January 2025 was a “usurpation” of the presidency. 

2. Systematic Human Rights Violations (Article 19)

Crimes Against Humanity: The International Criminal Court (ICC) and UN Fact-Finding Missions have documented “grave and ongoing abuses” under Maduro’s command, including extrajudicial killings, torture, and arbitrary detentions.

Constitutional Mandate: Article 19 of the Venezuelan Constitution requires the state to guarantee the “unalterable, indivisible, and universal” nature of human rights. Maduro’s “extensive campaign of repression” to maintain power is considered a direct and systematic violation of this constitutional obligation. 

3. Dismantling the Separation of Powers (Article 136)

Judicial Subordination: The Constitution requires a separation of branches. Maduro is accused of dismantling democratic institutions by filling the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) and the National Electoral Council (CNE) with loyalists, effectively turning the judiciary into a tool to disqualify opposition leaders and validate fraudulent results.

Legislative Interference: In 2019, the National Assembly formally declared that Maduro had “usurped” the presidency, a move that more than 50 countries recognized. 

4. Suppression of Political Rights (Articles 62 and 67)

Opposition Bans: The Maduro administration used the judiciary to bar prominent opposition leaders like María Corina Machado from running for office, a move viewed as a violation of the constitutional right to participate in public affairs.

Media and Assembly Restrictions: Legislation such as the “Law Against Hate” has been used to silence activists and journalists, violating constitutional guarantees for freedom of expression and peaceful assembly.”

THE ALTERNATIVE: THE DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA

González as President

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that making Edmundo González Urrutia the president of Venezuela is in compliance with the Constitution?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that swearing in Edmundo González Urrutia as president is in compliance with the Venezuelan Constitution is a 5 out of 5 from the perspective of popular sovereignty, but a 2 out of 5 from the perspective of current “de facto” institutional procedures.

The conflict arises from the divergence between the will of the people and the regime-controlled institutions.

1. Compliance with Popular Sovereignty (Score: 5/5)

Democratic Mandate: Article 5 of the Constitution states that “sovereignty resides inalienably in the people.” Evidence from more than 80% of voting tallies indicates that González won the July 2024 election with approximately 67% of the vote.

Constitutional Right to Office: Since González is widely recognized by international observers and multiple nations as the legitimate winner, his assumption of office would be the ultimate fulfillment of the constitutional requirement for the government to reflect the voters’ will. 

2. Compliance with Institutional Procedures (Score: 2/5)

Institutional Deadlock: For a president to be constitutionally sworn in, Article 231 typically requires the oath to be taken before the National Assembly or, failing that, the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ). Both institutions currently remain under the control of the ruling PSUV party, which has recognized Delcy Rodríguez instead.

The “Absolute Absence” Trigger: While Article 233 mandates new elections within 30 days if an “absolute absence” occurs during the first four years of a term, the TSJ has intentionally classified Maduro’s capture as a “forced” or “temporary” absence to avoid triggering this process.

Legal Challenges: Because the regime-controlled TSJ validated Maduro’s fraudulent 2024 win, they consider González’s claim to be a “usurpation of functions”. Therefore, any attempt to swear him in would be blocked by the existing (though widely considered illegitimate) legal framework. 

Summary of the Conflict

While legal scholars argue that swearing in González is the only way to restore constitutional order, it remains “legally impossible” under the current set of state institutions that were designed to protect the previous administration. For his presidency to be fully compliant and functional, it would require a complete overhaul of the judicial and electoral branches to align them with the 2024 results.”

The González Machado Administration

PART I

If the Edmundo González Urrutia is made president, what does Venezuela look like? Where would Machado be?

GoogleAI Mode: “If Edmundo González Urrutia were to assume the presidency, Venezuela would theoretically transition from the current “acting” regime of Delcy Rodríguez toward a democratic government based on the popular mandate of the 2024 election.

A Venezuela Under President González

A González presidency would likely focus on the following pillars of his “unitary process” and transition plan:

National Reconciliation: González has stated his primary goal is to “bring Venezuelans together” and end the era of internal political confrontation.

Restoration of Rule of Law: His government would seek to release all political prisoners—of which there are currently hundreds—and allow political exiles to return safely.

Economic Recovery: The transition would aim to revitalize the economy, likely through closer cooperation with international institutions and the U.S., particularly to stabilize the oil sector.

Institutional Reform: To be fully compliant with the Constitution, his administration would need to dismantle the current “subordinated” judiciary and electoral bodies to restore their independence. 

The Role and Location of María Corina Machado

Despite being the primary architect of the opposition’s 2024 victory, Machado’s role in a potential González government remains a point of significant internal and international debate:

The “Leader of the Opposition”: González continues to refer to Machado as the “leader of this unitary process” and the leader of the opposition.

“Ready to Lead”: Machado has publicly asserted that she and González have a joint mandate from the people and are prepared to take over the government when “the right time arrives”.

Diplomatic Diplomat: In January 2026, Machado traveled to Washington D.C., where she met with Donald Trump at the White House. She has been acting as a high-level diplomatic representative for the opposition, presenting her Nobel Peace Prize to Trump as a gesture of support for his role in Maduro’s removal.

Current Challenges: Despite her high profile, Trump has expressed doubt about her ability to lead, claiming she lacks “respect within the country”. Furthermore, because she faces threats of arrest for treason and conspiracy inside Venezuela, she has remained largely in the U.S. or in hiding to avoid detention by the remaining Chavista security forces. 

In summary, a González presidency would see Machado as a powerful “co-leader” or potentially a senior cabinet member, while the country would shift from the current “technocratic” acting government under U.S. oversight toward a fully sovereign, democratic administration.”

PART II

On a scale of 1 to 5, what is the likelihood that González as President and Machado as Vice President complies with the Constitution?

GoogleAI Mode: “On a scale of 1 to 5, the likelihood that swearing in Edmundo González Urrutia as President and María Corina Machado as Vice President complies with the Venezuelan Constitution is a 4 out of 5.

While this arrangement is widely viewed as the only path to restoring legitimate democratic order based on the 2024 election results, it faces specific legal hurdles under the current judicial framework.

1. Compliance with the Popular Mandate (Score: 5/5)

Sovereignty of the People: Article 5 of the Constitution establishes that sovereignty resides inalienably in the people. Evidence from more than 80% of voting tallies indicates that González won the 2024 election with roughly 67% of the vote.

Democratic Legitimacy: Because González is the recognized winner, his assumption of the presidency is the direct fulfillment of the constitutional requirement for the government to reflect the will of the voters. 

2. Presidential Authority to Appoint (Score: 5/5)

Discretionary Power: Under Article 236, the President has the sole authority to appoint and remove the Executive Vice President.

Intent to Appoint: González has publicly stated his intention to appoint Machado as his Executive Vice President, viewing her as a “legitimate and trusted” leader of the transition. 

3. Legal and Judicial Obstacles (Score: 2/5)

The primary reason this is not a “5” is the existing “legal blockade” created by the previous regime:

Political Disqualification: Machado was barred from holding public office for 15 years by the Comptroller General, a move upheld by the regime-controlled Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) in January 2024. While the opposition and international bodies call this “judicial criminality,” the ban remains active on paper in Venezuela.

Oath of Office Hurdles: Article 231 requires the president-elect to be sworn in before the National Assembly or the TSJ. Since both bodies currently recognize Delcy Rodríguez as acting president, they would likely view a González-Machado swearing-in as a “usurpation of functions”.

The “Shadow” Presidency: Due to these barriers, some analysts suggest Machado might act as a “de facto” leader or “shadow president” within a government formally led by González, rather than holding an official title that could be legally challenged by the TSJ. 

Summary of Likelihood

Factor
Presidential Appointment

Constitutional Strength
High: Article 236 allows the President to choose his VP.

Institutional Reality
Low: Loyalists currently control the appointing mechanism.

Factor
Popular Will

Constitutional Strength
High: Honors the 2024 vote (Art. 5).

Institutional Reality
Low: The CNE and TSJ refuse to verify these results.

Factor
Machado’s Eligibility

Constitutional Strength
High: Opposition views the ban as unconstitutional.

Institutional Reality
Low: The TSJ maintains a 15-year ban on her holding office.”

THE POLLS: María Corina Machado

How many Venezuelans want María Corina Machado as a leader?

GoogleAI Overview: “While exact numbers vary by poll and time, recent reports from January 2026 suggest significant Venezuelan support for María Corina Machado, with one poll showing over 50% wanting her to take over after Maduro’s removal, and another indicating 78% would vote for her in a presidential election, despite past disqualifications and differing opinions on U.S. involvement. Her overwhelming victory (over 90%) in the October 2023 opposition primary also showed massive support within the opposition movement. 

Evidence of Support:

Post-Maduro Polls (Jan 2026): An AtlasIntel poll for Bloomberg News found 51.6% of Venezuelans in their homeland said Machado should lead.

Presidential Election Poll (Jan 2026): A Meganálisis poll found 78% would vote for Machado in a presidential election, notes Time Magazine.

Opposition Primary (Oct 2023): She received about 93% of the votes in early results of the opposition’s presidential primary, according to The Guardian and NBC News. 

Context & Nuances:

Disqualification: Machado was barred from running in the 2024 presidential election, leading to Edmundo González running in her stead, reports Al Jazeera.

U.S. Involvement: While polls show support for Machado, some concerns exist about Washington’s role, notes Bloomberg.com. 

In summary, recent data suggests broad support for María Corina Machado among Venezuelans, particularly following the removal of Nicolas Maduro, with polls indicating a majority favor her leadership.”

THE POLLS: Edmundo González Urrutia

How many Venezuelans want Edmundo González Urrutia as a leader?

GoogleAI Overview: “While Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the opposition, including candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, claims he won the July 2024 Venezuelan election by a landslide, with evidence from tally sheets showing González securing around 70% of the vote against Maduro’s 30%, a result supported by exit polls and independent observers. The official results were disputed, with Maduro’s government not providing detailed counts, leading many Venezuelans and international bodies to believe González is the legitimate president-elect, despite his subsequent exile. 

Key Evidence & Claims:

Opposition Tallies: The opposition collected official tally sheets from over 80% of polling stations, indicating González won with roughly 67% to 30% for Maduro.

Exit Polls: U.S. firm Edison Research showed González leading Maduro 65% to 31%.

International Observers: The Carter Center and UN experts confirmed the legitimacy of the opposition’s tally sheets, even as they couldn’t verify the official results.

Public Sentiment: Surveys indicated strong desire for Maduro’s removal, with estimates suggesting around 80% of Venezuelans wanted him gone before the election. 

Outcome:

Maduro was sworn in for another term, but González was recognized as president-elect by several governments, including the U.S..

Edmundo González later went into exile in Spain after an arrest warrant was issued, though he vows to return. 

In essence, the majority of available evidence suggests most Venezuelans who voted supported Edmundo González, even though the official declaration favored Maduro.”